Times don’t get much more uncertain than they are right now. Of course, the first business priority in our current climate is to safeguard your firm. But uncertainty also brings huge opportunities. We are seeing fantastic examples of this right now as UK businesses large and small innovate to survive, many of whom are doing so on a not-for-profit basis to support the NHS, keyworkers, communities etc. It’s inspiring to see entrepreneurs in all sectors innovating and making a difference in times of crisis. There is hope.

It can be difficult to innovate when the future is so uncertain. But paradoxically, there is never a better time. With everything having changed, businesses must adapt to survive. Necessity is the mother of invention. ‘Strategy under Uncertainty’ is a great 25-minute read on this subject. Yes, it’s over 20 years old, but it’s never been more relevant and hindsight makes it even more fascinating (anyone remember Kodak?!). I encourage you to find the time to read it.

Key takeaways:

• In times of deep uncertainty, it is important not to rely on gut instinct but to look for what is known or can be known that will indicate how the future may unfold.
• Innovation potentially presents higher returns and lower risks, the greater the level of uncertainty. You’ve less to lose, and right now, if you don’t adapt, you might not survive anyway.
• When making strategic choices, look for “no-regrets moves” – ones that pay off whichever way the future goes. Increasing your business’ online/virtual delivery capability is an obvious current example of a “no-regrets move”.
• Reassuringly, periods of extreme uncertainty always return to times of greater certainty.
• There are different grades of uncertainty. As times return to ‘normal’, business owners must avoid the trap of viewing uncertainty as binary, i.e. things are either totally certain or completely unpredictable.

How are you adapting and innovating in the current climate?

Source: Courtney, H., Kirkland, J., & Viguerie, P. (1997). Strategy Unnder Uncertainty. https://hbr.org/1997/11/strategy-under-uncertainty